Category Archives: Economy

Mitigating Global Fragmentation in Digital Trade Governance: A Case Study

Posted on by

Mitigating global fragmentation in digital trade governance? This post is a short plug for my new paper on international trade in digital products like e-books, streaming entertainment, podcasts, or remote engineering services for businesses in the boondocks. It is hard enough within a country to ensure consumer protection, legal certainty for digital businesses, and transparency on which rules apply when and where. But, if you are trading between countries, the rules of the digital highway are often even less clear. Digital trade accords can help.

What’s the big (digital trade governance) deal, man?

Leading economies are moving to improve conditions for the international digital economy through digital trade agreements. For example, the US-Japan digital trade agreement or the USMCA (NAFTA 2.0) agreement. Such accords can provide an agreed rule book supporting digital trade between countries.

Often, current generation accords offer a measure of improved protection for consumers. They may provide increased certainty for businesses (better consistency of regulation). And they may facilitate transactions (like mutual recognition of standards for e-signatures or e-invoices). Trade agreements can ease the costs of doing business. This is not about deregulation… it is about aligning regulation, streamlining, and closing gaps.

Where the new digital trade deals are in place, preliminary evidence indicates that digital trade may tend to increase and regulatory gaps are closed. This benefits not only the digital businesses (like software vendors), but also consumers using digital goods and services, and businesses that are indirectly digital (ie, those that use digital products intensively like, say, architects).

This paper looks at how five leading digital economies (Canada, the European Union, Japan, Singapore and the United States) are using regional trade agreements to address digital concerns while enhancing trade. And, it considers complementary next steps for digital trade governance at the multilateral level.

Digital trade and the digital trade governance paper

This paper itself is part of digital trade. The publisher is located in Canada. CIGI distributes the paper digitally and directly across borders. Such international trade is a benefit to readers in California (yay, NAFTA 2.0!), Tokyo (yay CPTPP!) or points beyond (thank you WTO for duty-free digital transmissions, but it is time for an updated e-commerce deal please). Plus, the price of this paper is right (it is free!). And, with a 1 1/2 page executive summary in the front, you don’t have to read the whole dadblame paper. This is helpful, if you are pressed for time!

Reference and link:

Mitigating Global Fragmentation in Digital Trade Governance: A Case Study
CIGI Paper No. 270, Douglas Lippoldt, 10 January 2023

Link to paper

Update digital trade governance!
Rather old frameworks for digital trade should be updated!

Dramatic 2020 Heathrow downturn, though cargo rebounds

Posted on by

A graphical presentation of air traffic data reveals the extent of the dramatic 2020 Heathrow downturn. We live directly under a main landing corridor for Heathrow Airport. So, this directly affects our quality of life. To take a closer look at the data, I decided to make a chart in festive holiday colours (as one does). Passenger traffic is down to 1/7 of previous levels. Cargo still lags, though it has had a substantial rebound in recent months. For this I am thankful, because I need my organic Peruvian blueberries, right?

In any event, with the decline in air traffic I have been sleeping better. The lockdown has provided me with more time to ponder the joys of my little garden. Alas, this calm is also a reflection of severe economic and social disruption due to COVID-19. And, on the horizon in the new year is the end of the transitional phase of Brexit. This entails a further potential for disruption to trade with the EU. There has been progress in the EU-UK negotiations to soften the blow. Economists and business leaders are making the case for a liberal arrangement. Alas, UK politics being as they are, there remains a risk of a no deal Brexit for EU-UK trade.

A balanced Brexit outcome will provide the UK with continued openness to commerce on a preferential basis with its closest trading partner. This is clearly in the economic interest of the EU and the UK. Combined with a successful roll out of a COVID-19 vaccine, we may come closer to realisation of the full potential of this post-Brexit trade relationship. And, considering where I live, I hope that much of this commerce is via rail and sea!

The chart data are from here: https://www.heathrow.com/…/reports/traffic-

Heathrow Airport Traffic

Francis Fukuyama in debate with Pankaj Mishra

Posted on by

London, 14 October 2018

Francis Fukuyama in debate with Pankaj Mishra
Francis Fukuyama in debate with Pankaj Mishra

Doug’s notes from the live debate inside of Islington Municipal Hall (packed to capacity)

Francis Fukuyama

There is an ongoing threat to liberal democracy inside two of the oldest established liberal democracies: US and UK
⁃ also Poland Hungary and others

Start in 2016, why 2016?

most explainers say economic issues drove this, such as offshoring from wealthy countries to developing countries, China

but also: Loss of identity,
⁃ many feel inner dignity not adequately recognised, stolen honour of their identity due to cultural change, migration, multiculturalism

pre 1960s, left of Western political spectrum was focused on working class, white males at centre

then left shifted to help those disenfranchised: feminism, minorities

traditional left of centre voters shifted away because “we are not recognized”

elites neglected white males, compared to the past

anger over loss of identity

toxic arguments over gender race religion tribe, are unlike economic arguments: we can’t split the difference, you are either in or out

Pankaj Mishra

humiliation fuels want for recognition and a desire for equality

universalist history in fukuyama is derived from a Western story, misses rest of world

liberal democracy is complicit with imperialism: napoleonic armed expansion one example

majoritarianism trampled smaller voices also in East: eg, in india, Kashmir

Ideals of universalism such as in US revolution are fake, a lot about slave owners seeking to assert their own rights

Francis Fukuyama

In US civil war, Lincoln in his Gettysburg address shifted US society focus to an American identity not tied to race or gender, but rather one based on principles

American democracy is still a work in progress

how to have a multicultural society
need to have shared principles instead of an anchor in race, ethnicity

what other form of political organisation is there that would permit multiculturalism?

US system and UK system are not perfect, but better than alternatives

Pankaj Mishra

inequalities need to be addressed first,
then can fix political system

left has not been in power for a long long time

current left is really centrist, not leftist

injecting identity politics came from right Napoleonic oppression of blacks in Haiti

It was not 1960s left in USA initiating identity politics over feminism or race, as Francis said, identity had older darker roots in majoritarianism

Francis Fukuyama

He has been travelling to developing nations, teaching a course in Kurdistan for example

institutions of developing countries are often anchored by ethnicity, religion etc

But this is a formula for ongoing conflict

One can’t hold a nation together without a shared ideal

Syria, Iraq, others often build institutions often where ethnicity reigns (partly also a cultural legacy

Reagan Thatcher took liberal democracy and capitalism too far, he admits

but a more moderate form of liberal democracy is the best model we have got, so far

Pankaj Mishra

What is the answer? Should we carry on in same way?Just try to do better?
We need to transform this economic system that has imposed inequality

Liberal democracy is unable to meet this challenge

The conflict of liberal democracy vs capitalism that has not yet been reconciled

Francis Fukuyama

The concentration of political power is the problem, tyrannical power, as President Trump is trying to claim for himself, as are Orban, Erdogan, others.
A sound constitutional order can help to balance this.

We need lib democracy tied to mkt economy, anchored by a sound constitution

The rise of the right is threat

They are working to undermine liberal democracy
Not all trump supporters are elitist identity advocates.
Many coal miners, blue collar mfg worker, and others are losing out; they have legitimate concerns that must be addressed, and they must be peeled away from the Republican base if we want to exit the right from power

demogogic populism must be prevented from undermining democracy

We must also recognise that migration and sovereignty need to be managed democratically

On migration, the solution is a path to citizenship for those here, but also
enforcement of existing laws to regulate future arrivals

In the US excessive checks on concentration of power have impeded wishes of electorate; right has used this to block progress; need democracy with controls but also a right to govern. Balanced system.

There is no practical alternative to liberal democracy and capitalism,
China delivers growth but social and political model is unsatisfactory.

(Big spontaneous applause in the jam packed Islington Municipal Hall)

(C) Doug 14 October 2018 (including sketch above)


Hands off my crabs, Mr President!

Posted on by

A shortage of crabs on the Eastern Shore?

No! Hands off my crabs, Mr President! According to a Washington Post article on 17 August 2018, a labour shortage has emerged in the crab sector on the Eastern Shore of Maryland due to immigration controls. No local crab meat? We have to import it now? What is that all about?

Full employment for crab pickers?

We economists generally consider full employment reached when unemployment gets down to around 5%. Unemployment in Somerset is still around 7.7%, in Worcester it is around 6.4% and in Dorchester it is still 5.5%. In other words, there are folks out there on Delmarva who are looking for work.

What in the world: reservation wages?

And, the Delmarva crab houses have raised their wages. Yet, there is still a gap between the wages on offer in the crab industry and what folks expect in terms of working conditions and pay. These are the so-called reservation wages, the level of wages that workers will hold out for until they are willing to supply their labour.

What to do?

But, the crab houses can’t charge their customers enough to pay the wages most Eastern Shore folks want to do this type of work. What to do? Let the industry die? Or let in seasonal workers. I know what i would do… I’d first make sure local jobseekers know about the work on offer (via the state employment service). Then, if enough folks don’t come forward, I would make available seasonal work visas. I’d vote to keep the crab meat coming!

Photo: © Doug L., 2012

Reflections on lavender, white-tailed bumblebees and Brexit

Posted on by

Of lavender and British bees …

Thank goodness for lavender and white-tailed bumblebees. As the UK drifts toward Brexit with a strange sort of national complacency, and the social divisions and lack of strategic approach become increasingly evident and glaring, the lavender and white-tailed bumblebees in my backyard provide me with solace.

White-tailed bumblebee

Lavender and a white-tailed bumblebee in my garden

Each summer we have a lavender patch in our garden. And, from time to time I take a few minutes to stop and meditate nearby, enjoying the herbaceous atmosphere and watching the bees at work. I admire their industry and collaboration. Bees do seem to proceed joyfully in this labour. They simply love lavender. Here in the UK, I have grown to eagerly await the annual return of the white-tailed bumble bees. They are giant and awkward and focused in their efforts.

… and Brexit

This year, my lavender and white-tailed bumblebee meditations have helped me keep centred in the face of the national political craziness. As the tone of the Brexit discussions becomes darker, leading pundits are speaking of national humiliation (e.g., Gideon Rachman in the FT, 10 July 2017) and “calamity” (e.g, Martin Wolf in the FT, 13 July 2017).

While I do think that remaining in the EU is the best option economically and socially, the fact that Brexit is advancing should not yet lead to despair. It is too soon to give up on efforts to limit the damage. But, time is pressing. With just 20 months to go before Brexit (March 2019), avoiding the worst will require a strategic approach and urgent action. Where do the Brits want the UK to be in 2 years?

There are marginally costly Brexit scenarios like staying in the European Economic Area (single market) and there are costly cliff-edge, car-crash scenarios of a hard Brexit with no deal with the EU. Let us not wring our hands and watch the car crash unfold before us. Advocacy and action are required now.

But, meanwhile, the lavender and bees are here to keep things Zen for me. After another crazy week, I am hanging out in the garden and staying centred. And, thank goodness, if we do go over the cliff edge, then I know they will be here to help take out the sting.

Fine British white-tailed bumblebees at work in my garden


Wanderings around London from Embankment to Trafalgar Square

Posted on by

Facing political & economic turbulence, it can be useful to stop and smell the tulips

Fuelled by various political developments, the past few months have been a turbulent time in the global economy. Q4TK suffered a bit of neglect and indeed a bit of uncertainty as your correspondent sought to make sense of the situation. Reason, facts, and the normal analytical tools employed by the economics profession are being challenged. We economists are struggling to face up to the new populism evident in various parts of the globe. At the same time, most of us do recognise that some folks have legitimate grievances that need to be addressed.

Wanderings around London

And, so, today, I’m bringing you a few photos from my Wanderings around London from Embankment to Trafalgar Square. On Saturday, I decided to set aside my charts and tables. I simply walked out into the unfamiliar London spring warmth and sunshine. London was radiant as my spouse and I headed into the great metropolis. The parks and gardens bloomed in full glory. Folks filled the area along the Embankment, spilling out of the park to take a look at the surroundings and soak it all in.

There were drum circles protesting tow path closures. Folks from a brewery gave out free beer samples. Small clumps of people sat on blankets enjoying picnics and glasses of wine. Tourists visited the key sights. Locals stopped to admire the flowers. Your correspondent used the occasion to stop and ponder whatever caught his fancy, except work. The tulips were in full bloom. But, I resisted the impulse to ponder the Dutch tulip mania, a time of price inflation and collapse in the 1600s. Rather, I stopped and enjoyed their fragrance.

A river of tulips in Embankment Gardens

A river of tulips in Embankment Gardens, seen on our wanderings around London

Still, economics can be hard to escape. For example, in the gardens at Embankment there is a fountain dedicated to Henry Fawcett. Henry was a blind economist who campaigned in the mid-19th century on behalf of women’s right to vote. The fountain says it was erected by his fellow countrywomen in his memory. During the struggle, he proposed to a woman he had met in the campaigns. But, after her polite negative response (she was pursuing her medical studies), he eventually married her sister.

Renewal accomplished

After a great lunch at Barrafina in Adelaide Street (very much a place in pursuit of no-frills excellence and highly recommended), the wandering led us to the National Gallery. This museum is architecturally gorgeous and the collection is world class.

As the day drifted into evening, it was time to head home. Every once in a while, a day like this is required. It has a spiritual value, refreshes the mind, and helps to restore the inner strength needed in the quest for truth and knowledge.

Note: We have annotated the gallery below. Click on the up or down arrows under the thumbnail display in order to see the notes and see additional pictures.

[flagallery gid=28]

Tony Judt’s commentary on economic and social stresses

Posted on by

In cleaning out old papers in my home office, I just rediscovered a great book review from Tony Judt, his critique of Robert Reich’s Supercapitalism. Penned for publication in December 2007, Tony diagnosed developing economic and social stresses. He foresaw that the conditions then present could not endure indefinitely. Sadly, he was right. The financial crisis of 2007 morphed into the Great Recession. There followed a period of slow growth and increasing political tension in the advanced economies. Social cohesion weakened as inequalities deepened. Perhaps not suprisingly, many voters became more receptive to suggestions for radical solutions challenging the established order. And, then 2016 happened: Brexit, Trump, and nationalist political turbulence in the EU, among other developments.

Economic and social stresses, plus elements of a solution

Already in 2007, Judt suggested that we act to head off the emerging stresses. He noted that there were important lessons from an earlier time of economic uncertainty in the 20th century. Referring to those living a few generations ago, Judt says,

“We may discover, as they did, that the universal provision of social services and some restriction upon inequalities of income and wealth are important economic variables in themselves, furnishing the necessary public cohesion and political confidence for a sustained prosperity — and that only the state has the resources and the authority to provide those services and enforce those restrictions in our collective name. […] We may find that a healthy democracy far from being threatened by the regulatory state, actually depends upon it: that in a world increasingly polarized between insecure individuals and unregulated global forces, the legitimate authority of the democratic state may be the best kind of intermediate institution that we can devise.”

Judt contrasted such a model with the alternative presumably being rolled out in the US as of 2007. The alternative included untrammelled economic freedom, accompanied by fear and insecurity, reduced social provision and economic regulation. It also included “ever-extending governmental oversight of communication, movement, and opinion.” While history had shown the advantages of balanced, market-oriented economic policies, the alternative approach failed to recognise the importance of social objectives in the successful operation of those policies. Even free markets need an appropriate rule book to ensure optimal outcomes for society as a whole.

Peering into 2017

As the year 2016 grinds to a close, I look out from the top of Greenwich Park hill with some trepidation. Economic and social stresses remain clearly evident. Unfortunately, Judt passed away in 2010 and is not here to update his assessment. I would love to hear his lessons from 2016.

Reflecting on the prospects for 2017, it seems clear that part of the solution should include Judt’s steps to improve social cohesion. Support for those dislocated by globalisation and technological change is needed. This might improve the chances to pursue successfully a more balanced and coherent approach to economic policy. As demonstrated by some Scandinavian countries in recent years, availability of such support can help to reduce the resistance to a positive, market-oriented reform agenda.

It may be that some positive, piecemeal actions are taken due to the current populist political movements in the US or EU. But, these are unlikely to prove adequate. We need more a more coherent, systemic approach. A first step might be to shift the objective from simply protecting what we already have. Why not set a more ambitious target of broad-based, increasing economic prosperity? A more inclusive and open economic strategy, including adequate social protection and improved educational opportunities, might take us further. By better mobilising the full economic potential of society, we improve our chances for improved future well-being.

Reference: Tony Judt, 6 December 2007, “The Wrecking Ball of Innovation”, in The New York Review of Books, Vol. 54, No. 19, a review of “Supercapitalism: The Transformation of Business, Democracy, and Everyday Life”, by Robert B. Reich; http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2007/12/06/the-wrecking-ball-of-innovation/ .

The view from Greenwich Park, London

The view from Greenwich Park, London

America: Don’t give up on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Posted on by

Look before you leap away from TPP

My fellow Americans, this is for you. Before the American people get all happy about the demise of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), I think you should look at it. I have studied it pretty carefully and read several hundred pages, skimming other bits and examined the economic literature on it. I have a couple of my own peer-reviewed studies on it. And here is what I see…

A high standards agreement

TPP is a high standards agreement that levels the playing field for American workers and businesses in a number of ways. It has a chapter to ensure enforceable (!) worker rights based on high international standards. TPP’s chapter on protection of the environment includes action-oriented provisions and also requires protection against trade in endangered species. TPP protects the free flow of data and openness of the internet with respect to trade including e-commerce. It makes clear the rights to fair use of copyright protected materials to keep information free for education or research purposes. The agreement improves protection for business confidential information. It keeps digital trade free from duties. And, a side agreement addresses concerns about currency manipulation.

A diverse group of reform-minded trade partners

The TPP agreement covers the US and 11 partners around the Pacific Basin, based on such high standards. It creates an alternative model for trade that prevents beggar-thy-neighbour policies and averages standards upwards. It covers developing countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, or Peru, and offers them a chance to play by US and free and fair market rules rather than taking a race-to-the-bottom approach. Even among the developed countries like Canada, Japan, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand, as well as countries like Brunei, Chile and Mexico, it better aligns standards and regulations with those of the US. These countries have reached out and committed to an open, high standards relationship with America.

TPP is a win-win scenario

If we throw the TPP out the window, we will jettison at least a few percent of US economic growth (probably more than that over time). But, worse, we will leave the Pacific partners with few options but to look for another approach. And that means a less favourable world for all 12 countries, with a less level playing field for America. And, one thing we have learned from our history is that isolationist policies and pure nationalism do not protect us. Rather they leave us worse off and with fewer resources to look after ourselves. Why should we turn down this win-win TPP trade agreement, settling for a less prosperous future and a world turned away from the United States? That is not in our own interest, folks. (Nor that of our trade partners).

Take a look and get the facts before rejecting the TPP!

Hanoi traffic

Hanoi traffic: Will it be with us or will we veer  off the TPP road?

In politics, lies matter. That’s a fact. And we all may pay the price.

Posted on by

Are lies a political reality?

In a sign of the times, on 10 September 2016, the Economist published a lead article entitled the “Art of the lie“. Taking stock of the level of political discourse in the United States’ presidential election season and the United Kingdom’s Brexit debates, the Economist sums up the situation as a time of “post-truth politics”. In this era, the emphasis is on feelings and reinforcement of prejudices rather than facts. Assertions of what one feels should be true replace reality. Lies have become a more important feature of the political scene.

This distortion of reality is not a trivial matter, especially when it is manifest in leaders of nations. Incorrect information is a threat to the quest for truth and knowledge. But, the damage does not stop with impairment to one’s understanding of reality.

Promises, promises

A review of the academic literature on campaign promises posted on the web site FiveThirtyEight found that in fact politicians do behave in a consequent manner. In a majority of instances, once elected they do strive to attain their promised objectives. Politicians in the United States act to deliver on about two-thirds of their promises. In the United Kingdom, governments control both the legislative and executive branches (ie, a parliamentary system). There, the rate of follow through is more than 80%. Similar patterns were found in countries as diverse as Canada, Greece or the Netherlands.

False perceptions of reality can have tangible impacts in the direction of government. This poses risks to the economy, education, health, security and the other domains covered in  public policy. Whether in democracies or authoritarian governments, it is not in the public interest for governments to set off in a wrong-headed direction. Real damage is done.

Bad choices

A recent essay by the Harvard economist Ricardo Hausmann, Through the Venezuelan Looking Glass, assesses why it is that nations engage in such self-defeating behaviour. In a nutshell, he points to dysfunctional belief systems.

Justice, at the entrance to the World Trade Organization in Geneva

Justice, by Luc Jaggi, 1925

 

Significant portions of a society may align on sets of beliefs that are not in line with reality. They do not reflect the facts. Damaging political decisions may follow. Hausmann cites the example of the Salem witch trials (1692-1693). He notes that if one believes in the Devil and thinks that Satan can take over women’s souls, then it may be reasonable public policy to hang those accused of witchcraft. On the other hand, in reality, such policy is incomprehensible to most folks.

Just the facts

As Hausmann puts it, “Politics is about the representation and evolution of alternative belief systems.” In setting the priorities for a society, there are a range of reasonable competing possibilities. There is ample room for debate on different options and approaches to improving our welfare. While science has a clear role to play, there is also a subjective element and preferences may vary among people. But, if the starting point is not even based in reality, then it becomes more difficult to make a viable choice and achieve tangible progress. Indeed, it can all end quite badly. One need look no further than the witches of Salem.

The Amazing (Generally) French Highway System

Posted on by

The French Highway System: A Road to Somewhere

Occasionally, the French find interesting market-oriented ways to deal with strategic challenges. Sometimes they arrive at a capitalist destination in a manner that was not necessarily part of the original plan. A fine example of this is the amazing (generally) French highway system.

Capitalist tendencies

The Normandie Bridge over the Seine near Le Havre
The Normandie Bridge over the Seine near Le Havre (Credit: Pecold / Shutterstock.com)

The autoroute system was established under the direction of the state, which granted concessions to state firms to build specific sections. These firms were largely privatised in recent decades, in some cases with substantial portions of the shares winding up in the hands of institutional investors, employees and small investors. Nowadays, these privatised firms and some emerging competitors from the private sector operate most of the long-haul sections of the system as toll roads. The tolls are generally based on distance travelled and the rates are fairly high compared to what toll roads charge in some countries such as the United States. Only in urban areas and Brittany, do the main highways generally remain in state hands with mostly toll-free operation.

My way is the highway

The amazing thing is that the intercity portion of the system works very well. Despite the heavy presence of the state in the French economy, somehow the government hit upon the right idea of exploiting a market-based solution to further the development and operation of the highway system.

Across most of the intercity network, the roadbed is generally well maintained with wide shoulders. With a legal speed limit of 130 km per hour (80 mph) outside of built-up areas, it is easy to cover distance quickly. Capacity is generally adequate except during peak travel seasons (though, admittedly, traffic can be periodically heavy at other times as well).

Rest stop on way to Nantes

Rest stop on way to Nantes – Accommodations in a non-commercial rest area

There are rest areas every 15 kilometers (10 miles) or so. Many of the rest areas are quiet, non-commercial parks with restrooms, telephones, picnic tables, playgrounds and space to walk dogs. The accommodations in the non-commercial rest areas are basic with unheated restrooms and no hot water. Others areas, at less frequent intervals, are more standard car and truck stops with gas stations and restaurants, heat and hot water.

Yay, infrastructure!

The investment in infrastructure is quite impressive, often implemented with architectural flair. A fine example is the Normandy Bridge across the Seine near La Havre. The various installations are often accented with splashes of color. In some places, there are engineering marvels like the new tunnel in the outer beltway around Paris. With little disruption on the surface, the tunnel cuts under a dense urban area as well as parkland. Built by the construction firm and highway operator Vinci as a toll road, the tunnel uses a duplex approach with North- and Southbound lanes stacked on top of each other in a large tube. The result of such investment is reduced travel time and improved quality of life, all while making a contribution to stimulate the economy.

Beautifully bucolic

View from the wetlands of a rest stop in Picardie

A view of lush farmland, looking across a wetland built into the landscaping of a highway rest area in Picardie

The highways offer an excellent option for exploring the gorgeous French countryside. But, even along the roadway the landscaping is attractive with occasional sculptures and special plantings, and no billboards. As in most countries, the French urban road network may be stressful and challenging to drivers, but out here in the countryside it often feels like one is driving through a postcard setting. Indeed, when travelling across France it pays to budget a bit of extra time for a foray or two off the main road. A surprising number of temptations are situated along the highways, ranging from vineyards to splendid natural sites, from historic monuments to gastronomic wonders.

Conclusion: Time for a Road Trip?

The French highway system is a confirmation that public-private collaboration can indeed make a positive contribution to quality of life. While a country road, less-travelled, can offer many charms and attractions in France, the highway travel to the start of the country road may also be a worthwhile part of the experience (particularly if you plan ahead to avoid peak travel seasons and heavily-utilised routes). Could it be time to hit the road?